Good afternoon, I’m still reporting on the coup.
Only 81 days to go before masks are no longer an essential of our society, and only 81 days until COVID-19 magically disappears from the fruited plains.
So I’ve been wondering how the pollsters were skewing President Trump’s polls this year, because everyone knows that Jumpin’ Joe Biden is NOT beating Trump at this point.
Last night, Jared Kushner – a Trump advisor – wen on Brett Baier’s show and bashed the methodology this year of even the Fox polls:
[insert]
Whoah! These polls are using a model based on a 24% Republican turnout, when in both the 2016 and 2018 elections, 33% of Republicans turned out to vote. And these idiots are buying into a 24% Republican turnout this year??? They are deluded.
So what’s going to happen? This year, my guess would be that more like 50% of Republicans will turn out to vote – if not north of 60% - and that’s more than enough to crush Biden and crew.
But wait, wait, there’s more. According to a story in the Gateway Pundit this morning, latest Rasmussen poll showed that 33% of black Democrat voters are less likely to vote for Biden because now Kamala Harris is on the ticket.
Why? Here’s why:
[insert Tulsi]
Regardless of the veracity of Gabbard’s accusation, it is a factor for 33% of black voters.
Now, remember what the black numbers were in the 2016 election? Trump got only 8%. Before that election, it was widely said that if Trump could just get his black vote numbers up to 15% he would win in a landslide.
Well, he won in a landslide with only 8% of the vote in 2016.
Throughout this year, many polls have shown the black vote going for Trump to be around 33%, and that’s BEFORE Kamala Harris became the VP pick. So what is it now? 35 or 40%.
So Trump has 50 or 60% white vote, 35 or 40% of the black vote. The other important block is the suburban mom vote. It went heavily for Clinton last time. With major cities in flames now, 50% of New Yorkers want to leave that state because of the violence, how do you think the suburban moms are going to vote this time? Heavily for Trump, you can bet.
So that’s my first official guestimate at the overall voting patterns in the coming election. At some time in the next month, I’ll start to break it down on a state by state basis.
The way we’ll handle that will be to take whatever polls we can get into the back end of and then insert our own skews – just as we did in the 2016 election and hopefully get the same predictive results.
So I’ve always believed that President Trump would win re-election, but that was based on faith. Now, that belief is starting to be backed up by the numbers, and so, the bottom line is as soon as I saw Jahred Kushner last night say that a lot of these polls were using a 24% turnout model, the lights flicked on and I knew it was true.
Who in the heck would think that only 24% of Republicans would come out to vote for Trump this year. For sure it will be twice that many.
I’m still reporting from just outside the citadel of American freedom. Good day.