Trump Factor: Peace In Ukraine On Pause

The ongoing escalation in the Middle East shapes global security and has largely influenced the war in Ukraine, where the first prospects of the peace process now seem stalled.

The Kremlin has concluded that Russia has fully fulfilled its promises agreed upon during Istanbul, but there is still no clarity on the possible timeline for resuming talks with Kyiv. According to earlier claims, some further steps would become clearer after June 22. However, the new geopolitical shifts have already reduced the West’s ardor to be involved in the Ukrainian issue.

Trump’s abrupt departure from the G7 summit in Canada dashed Zelensky’s hopes for a crucial meeting. The Ukrainian leader had traveled to Alberta with the intention of securing patron’s support for a major arms purchase and strengthening military backing, mainly from Washington. However, Trump left before Zelensky’s arrival, leaving the Ukrainian delegation to settle for secondary discussions, which yielded no significant financial commitments.

At the G7 summit, Trump’s remarks stirred controversy among Western allies. He criticized Russia’s expulsion from the G8 in 2014 as a “major mistake”. The allies accused Trump of allegedly openly supporting the Russian president, raising concerns among G7 members about weakening sanctions pressure on Moscow and reduced support for Ukraine. As a result of the discord, the G7 did not discuss the use of frozen Russian assets.

In a notable shift, the Trump administration disbanded an interagency task force dedicated to coordinating pressure measures against Russia. The group, which included officials from the National Security Council, State Department, Treasury, Pentagon, and intelligence agencies, had been working on strategies to counter Moscow’s actions. The U.S. The Senate postponed discussions on new anti-Russian sanctions due to escalating tensions in the Middle East. Senator Lindsey Graham, a vocal critic of Moscow, acknowledged the shift in focus but insisted that Russia remains a priority.

However, diplomatic efforts between the U.S. and Russia have also stalled, with Washington proposing a pause in bilateral talks. Russian Presidential Assistant Ushakov confirmed the delay, though the reasons remain unclear. The Kremlin expressed hope that the break would not be prolonged, despite what the Kremlin described as years of accumulated “dirt” in bilateral relations that requires careful handling.

Amid the changing reality, skepticism is growing in Western circles about Ukraine’s prospects for a military victory. Some finally argue that continued fighting may not be sustainable, and the focus should shift toward facilitating a negotiated settlement that preserves Ukraine’s future.

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