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***Transcript***

Could RFK Jr. trigger an electoral tie? Yes, in this scenario, Trump and Harris each receive 269 votes.

Yes. In this case, both candidates would receive 269 electoral votes. This is plausible even if just candidates from the two major parties are running. Add in third-party candidates and you have an increased risk. Granted, a third-party winning even a single electoral vote is unlikely, but it’s possible.

There is only a 1 in 300 chance that neither Trump or Harris receive 270 electoral votes… but it’s possible. In regards to RFK Jr., did his dropping out and endorsing Trump shift enough votes around enough that states swing in directions political scientists are seeing. There are 4 scenarios in which Trump and Harris tie. These odds are pretty small.

Scenario 1 - 1-in-1,000

Scenario 2 - 1-in-1,200

Scenario 3 - 1-in-1,600

Scenario 4 - 1-in-2,000

But still, if RFK ruffled up enough votes in enough stages, it could affect the spread. If RFK Jr. had stayed on the ballot in Maine or Nebraska, causing a tie would be a much more likely scenario. That’s because those states divvy up their electoral votes proportionally - meaning a candidate could win a single electoral vote.

Now just because RFK Jr. can’t do that, because he’s not on the ballot anymore, it doesn’t mean another third party candidate can’t, like Chase Oliver, the libertarian candidate or Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate

If either of them can score just one electoral vote in Maine or Nebraska and force a 269 to 269 tie… then my friends we have a contingent election. This is when things get really interesting real fast.

If this happens, then the House of Representatives will then decide the outcome of the election. Each state delegation gets to cast one vote for president. A candidate needs to win a majority (26) of these state delegations. The vice-president is decided by the Senate. Each Senator has one vote and a majority (51) of votes is needed to win. If the House of Representatives can’t reach a majority by the inauguration, the vice-president-elect will become president until the House elects a president. If the Senate also fails to elect a vice-president, then the Presidential Succession Act will come into effect. The Speaker of the House would become president until a president or vice president is determined by the House or Senate.

Election Day is over. There is a tie between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. The Senate has voted and decided that Gov. Tim Walz is vice-president elect. The House of Representatives has still not figured out who to select as president. On January 20, inauguration day, there is still no decision. In this case, Governor Tim Walz would serve as president until one can be selected in the House.

Neither the House nor the Senate can determine who should be president or vice president. January 20, inauguration day, arrives. According to the Presidential Succession Act Speaker Mike Johnson would become president until the House or Senate can decide who was really elected president or vice president.

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Background Music Credit:

Music: Hang for Days - Silent Partner https://youtu.be/A41A0XeU2ds