Update on Russian military operations for March 20, 2023:

- Russian forces are not only encircling the fortified city of Bakhmut, but now also apparently Avdiivka;

- Both cities are heavily fortified positions along Ukraine’s main defense line in the Donbass region and their encirclement will compromise the entire defense line;

- Western media continues admitting critical shortages of Ukrainian manpower, weapons, and ammunition;

- As Ukraine is preparing for its spring offensive, the US and its allies are likely utilizing emergency stockpiles to surge the amount of artillery and rocket ammunition to Ukraine in amounts much higher than have recently been transferred;

- This surge is a one-time possibility after which Western stockpiles will be exhausted and future shipments will depend mainly on monthly ammunition production which and will be for several years unable to match or exceed Russian ammunition supplies;

- Ukraine is being forced to organize a massive offensive using poorly trained troops operating equipment they are unfamiliar with against Russian forces who have been preparing to meet this offensive months in advance;

- Ukrainian forces could once again compel Russian forces into withdrawals but will suffer immense losses before facing counteroffensives comprised of 350k Russian reservists;

References:

New York Times - Ukraine Burns Through Ammunition in Bakhmut, Putting Future Fights at Risk (March 16, 2023):
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/16/world/europe/ukraine-ammunition-bakhmut.html
The Kyiv Independent - Media: Public data suggests over 16,000 Russian soldiers have been killed during first year of all-out war (March 4, 2023):
https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/media-public-data-suggests-over-16-000-russian-soldiers-have-been-killed-during-first-year-of-all-out-war
The Kyiv Independent - Battle of Bakhmut: Ukrainian soldiers worry Russians begin to ‘taste victory’ (March 15, 2023):
https://kyivindependent.com/national/battle-of-bakhmut-ukrainian-soldiers-worry-russians-begin-to-taste-victory
Alexander Mercouris - Russia Claims Control Avdeevka Roads, MSM Russia Tasting Victory Bakhmut, US Demands Counterattack (March 17, 2023):
https://youtu.be/ZMYsgUuUa2E

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